There’s a furore happening on the fringes of Melbourne… the rural fringes, that is.

To make way for the estimated growth of Melbourne’s population – predicted to be five million by 2030 – the Victorian State Government feels the need to expand the size of the city’s urban sprawl.

Stymied by the State opposition and by residents’ action groups on its previous proposals for high-density urban developments, the government now plans to re-zone rural land as residential land, compulsorily acquiring about 300 properties in the process.

By expanding suburban areas to the north, west and south-east of the city, the government hopes to secure over 50,000 hectares of land for the building of 284,000 houses. A new, outer-metropolitan, 100km ring road and 50km of regional rail link are also part of the plan.

In an attempt to compensate those of us who view the countryside as more than just real estate, 15,000 hectares of grassland will be preserved in Melbourne’s west.

And what’s the deal for landholders who currently live in this new zone?

They’ll have to pay $95,000 per hectare in land tax on any parcel of land that exceeds 0.4 hectares that they decide to sell, subdivide or develop. How else is the government expected to pay for all that new infrastructure?

Justin Madden, Victoria’s Planning Minister, has talked up the deal, saying that property owners would be in for a windfall after the land is re-zoned.

The rather alarming downside to that is that rising council property rates could force people off their land before they have a chance sell.

Mr Madden’s command of weasel words is impressive when he considers the hardships faced by many: ‘It will no doubt mean that people will have to consider whether they want to maintain the use of that land in the most effective manner, based on their financial circumstances.’

Based on the financial circumstances imposed by the government’s re-zoning measures, my guess is that most people won’t have a choice but to sell and lose their homes, livelihoods, and in some cases their security for old age, with little to show for it.

The Green Wedges Coalition is a group of 160 community and environment groups across Melbourne, formed to protect the city’s green spaces. Between 1968 and 1971, the ‘Melbourne metropolitan planning process officially established nine green wedges as non-urban zones for open space or parkland between Melbourne’s main transport corridors.’

These green spaces were set aside for flora and fauna conservation, farming, landscape protection, recreation and resource utilization. ‘They were designed to separate the urban development along the transport corridors, to protect the catchments of our creeks and rivers and to link the city with the country, and with a more distant green belt of state forests and national parks.’

The Green Wedges Coalition represents many of those who oppose the spread of Melbourne’s urban sprawl. They have called on the government to halt the planned destruction of ecologically important grasslands and the highly fertile farmlands that provide Melbourne’s food.

Spokesperson for the Green Wedges Coalition, Rosemary West, says that the expansion of the city’s boundaries was almost twice as large as first proposed.

After the Government’s Smart Growth initiatives of 2005, in which the green wedge areas were reduced by 11,500 hectares, former Planning Minister Rob Hulls promised that they would be the last until 2030. The present Planning Minister, Justin Madden, promised not to undermine this.

In 2008, Melbourne’s 2030 Audit Group recommended that there should be no further change to the Urban Growth Boundary for at least five years.

But it seems there’s now a younger upstart who’s been doing the government’s dirty legwork: The Growth Areas Authority. A statutory body established in 2006, the GAA’s plan for outer urban development, A Plan for Melbourne’s Growth Areas, sets out a vision for Melbourne’s growth areas over the next 25 years.

The Weekly Times reported that over 2,000 landholders have received letters from the GAA, outlining the land tax charge which will apply once their land is rezoned and brought into the urban growth boundary.

Justin Madden believes that the rezoned land is worth $300,000 to $400,000 a hectare and that it can only increase in value. But Peter Cochran, president of the Victorian Farmers Federation horticulture group, begs to differ. He says that ‘it may be years before a developer showed any interest in someone’s land, especially smaller landholders.’

With local councils extracting higher rates, landholders will be locked into an untenable situation, unable to sell because of high land taxes.

According to property consultant Michael Hocking, land on existing residential developments on Melbourne’s fringe could sell for $200,000 per hectare. But he also points out that developers won’t be interested in smaller lots or those that are furthest away from roads or services.

Under this bigger, brighter, new plan for Melbourne, those who have made their homes and established businesses in what was once the Victorian countryside, could be facing financial hardship.

In keeping with promises made by his predecessors, Planning Minister Justin Madden stated that this latest plan would be the last expected shift in urban growth boundaries.

On the shifting sands on which Melbourne’s urban planning is based, I’m having more than a little trouble believing him. How about you?